In his mind, a decision tree sprouted. He had an overcard and a royal flush draw. He calculated his —the mathematical share of the pot he owned based on the probability of his hand winning by the river. With 12 "outs" (9 spades for the flush, 3 non-spade Queens for the straight), he had roughly a 26% chance of hitting the best hand on the final card. Miller had shoved all-in for $400 into a $600 pot.
"The math doesn't quite get there," Elias whispered. His equity (26%) was lower than the price he was being offered (28.5%). In a single instance, it was a "fold." Mathematics of Poker
"I am," Elias replied calmly. "But you're giving me a discount on the variance." The dealer burned a card and turned the river: . The Royal Flush. In his mind, a decision tree sprouted
In his mind, a decision tree sprouted. He had an overcard and a royal flush draw. He calculated his —the mathematical share of the pot he owned based on the probability of his hand winning by the river. With 12 "outs" (9 spades for the flush, 3 non-spade Queens for the straight), he had roughly a 26% chance of hitting the best hand on the final card. Miller had shoved all-in for $400 into a $600 pot.
"The math doesn't quite get there," Elias whispered. His equity (26%) was lower than the price he was being offered (28.5%). In a single instance, it was a "fold."
"I am," Elias replied calmly. "But you're giving me a discount on the variance." The dealer burned a card and turned the river: . The Royal Flush.